Social Democracy in Sweden is Far From Dead

The September 19 general election in Sweden pitted the incumbent Alliance of moderates, centrists, and conservatives against the traditional heavyweights Social Democrats, in a bloc with the Greens and far left. The talk leading up to the election had been all about the Sweden Democrats, the far-right, anti-immigration party which had arisen out of neo-Nazi groups in the 1980s.

The Alliance had hoped for an increase in votes for its largest member, the Moderate Party, so that a majority government could be formed. In a country where the social welfare state is renowned and a source of pride, the architects of the "Swedish Model", the Social Democratic Party, were faced with the possibility of not only not regaining power (something they'd held for some 63 out of the previous 75 years) but also with going below the 30% threshold for the first time ever.

When the votes were finally tallied, the results were both expected and unexpected: While the Moderate Party's share of the vote increased, its partners' went down, leaving a razor-thin gap of 16 seats for the Alliance to form a majority in the 349-seat Riksdag. The Social Democrats did not do as badly as some had predicted, coming in at 30.8%, along with a further 7.2% for the Greens and 5.6% for the Left.

The Alliance has 172 seats, the Red-Green coalition 157 in the new Riksdag

It would seem then, that the nationalist Sweden Democrats, who gained 20 seats and 5.7% of the vote, would hold the balance between the Alliance and the Red-Green coalition. Except that neither party has stated they are willing to negotiate with them at all, meaning that the Alliance will have to rely upon at least some support from the Social Democrats, Greens, and the Left.

With this historic result, a conservative coalition has maintained political power after an election for the first time in since before World War Two. It is also the worst electoral result for the Social Democrats in almost a century, with some questioning whether this marks the demise of socialism and the welfare state in Sweden.

Such conjecture is premature, at best. Social democracy in Sweden is far from dead.

The economy in Sweden has remained quite stable throughout the global economic recession, and when the economy is going good, the party in power will reap the benefits. The Alliance coalition has been in power since 2006, and their limited privatization policies have helped to stimulate jobs at a time when other countries are unable to. Many have pointed to the combination of lower taxes and reduction in social benefits spending that the Moderates have implemented since they gained power as a sign that Swedes no longer appreciate the safety nets that the Social Democrats had put in place over several decades.

Fredrik Reinfeldt, leader of the Moderate Party

Again, this type of conjecture is premature at best. Social democracy, and the Swedish people's appreciation for socialist policies, is far from dead.

While the Social Democrats scored only 0.8% higher than the Moderates on the national level, the local electoral results paint a rosier picture, with 32% and a six point lead over the Moderates for municipal and county results. Additionally, polls as late as the week before the election had been showing a probably majority for the Alliance, but this popularity seemed to go down after a debate over health care insurance seemed to paint the Moderates as forcing patients with severe illness and pain to work.

Swedes like the Moderates' handling of the economy, and see Fredrik Reinfeldt as a better leader for the country than his Social Democrat opponent. While the Moderates can make slight modifications to the welfare state, pruning the excessive branches from the socialist tree, as it were, any kind of deeper, more fundamental change would be most unwelcome among the Swedish population at large.

A case can be made in saying that the Social Democrats maybe had enforced too rigidly their ideology, and as a result were unable to react well enough to the political and economic climate they found themselves in in the mid-2000s, but general, widespread support for the social framework they had placed in Swedish society will remain.